Meanwhile, as Bank of America points out in a recent report, in North America alone, almost 2,000 regional jets are more than 15 years old, as are hundreds more worldwide, so replacements are needed this decade. These trends led to the hype at this year’s Farnborough Airshow for expensive, niche technologies that will not pay dividends for most of the air transport system for decades, if ever. More is at stake than public opinion: Airlines are once again highly motivated to cut fuel consumption.
Air travel faces growing scrutiny as a source of greenhouse gas emissions. The public is increasingly concerned about global warming. But these all-jet decisions were largely made between 19, when oil prices were $18-36 per barrel, with no big upward spikes.įast-forward to 2022. Jets use considerably more fuel than props-a double-digit greater amount, per seat and per mile flown. Regional jets were seen as more productive, able to pursue traffic from markets close to competing airlines’ hubs and more appealing to passengers, although the last point is highly debatable, given the importance of ticket pricing to passengers.Īll-jet fleets came at a price. Between 20, 4,204 jets were built and just 1,716 props. Then regional jets arrived in force, and 1,105 of these were built between 19, along with 2,215 props.īut then all-jet fleets became a mantra for many regional operators. Between 19, 2,356 props were built and just 259 jets. Ultimately, turbofans swept them away.Ĭonsider regional aircraft. Aviation once embraced a more efficient form of propulsion-propellers-and considered embracing related very high-bypass propulsion concepts such as propfans and ducted propellers. But technologies from our industry’s past may offer paths forward, or at least a better balance of costs and risks. That will require billions of dollars to pursue uncertain solutions, with the strong risk of technological dead ends. The global civil aviation industry has pledged to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. With SAF, scalability is a big challenge, too. Hydrogen, electric and hybrid propulsion, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and other emerging technologies offer varying degrees of promise but there are serious questions about their feasibility and cost-effectiveness.
Yet there is no clear path forward beyond incremental improvements with today’s technologies, and we are nearing the limits of what can be achieved with thermal efficiency gains. Decarbonization is one of the biggest trends in aviation.
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